← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 47.3% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.6% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.0% | +10.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 61.2% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.8% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |